Top Five Big-Ball Point Guards E-mail
Written by Erik   
Thursday, 08 October 2009 09:08

When drafting in the head-to-head format and using the "Big-ball Strategy", you generally are focusing on categories that are considered strengths of the average NBA big man. You try to build a team that expects to dominate its match-ups in the following categories: FG%; Rebounds; Blocks. You tend to ignore or punt the FT% and 3PTM categories. You attempt to contest Points, TOs, Steals, Assists.

rondo-rose

Unlike the dilemma that Small-ball drafters face in looking for big men (centers, power forwards) who do not have a negative impact on their priority categories, Big-ball is actually blessed with a healthy supply of point guards who shoot the ball with relatively impressive efficiency. How to choose which PGs to grab for your team will actually depend on what categories you want to add on to your focus.

From my general mock drafting experience, you should almost always try to remain competitive in the points category while attempting to go for assists and or steals as "back door" categories. Here is a list of the top five point-guard-eligible guys who should work well for your draft strategy. These guys have at least 4+ RPG and 47+ FG%.

5. Andre Miller, PG Portland Trailblazers - He averaged 4.5 rebounds per game and shot 47.3% from the field. The catch is that was when he was playing for the Philadelphia 76ers last season. A new team and system should affect Andre's stats. We're not sure exactly how it the change will affect his big-ball numbers, but he is currently averaging 46.0 FG% and 4.2 RPG for his career. Since we're drafting big, we don't mind that Miller does not have much of an outside shot to speak of. In fact we welcome it, because his game leads us to expect a higher FG% than thee average PG. He should be a good source of assists for your big ball team.

4. Derrick Rose, PG Chicago Bulls - He averaged 3.9 rebounds per game last season. True, it was not 4.0 or higher. He was a rookie then, so we'll let that little decimal of a difference slide this time around. He's young, talented, and very athletic. He has a wicked first step that allows him to beat almost anyone to the basket at an ankle-breaking consistency. Hence, his 47.5 FG% last season. Word on the street is that he's been working on his outside shooting all summer long. Let's hope he either really improved or at least not enough for Rose to continue to stick to his hoop-slashing game. He has a lot of upside expectations riding on his shoulders this coming season. He presents good value in the late third to early fourth rounds, although I've seen him reached for as early as the tail end of the second round. He can be expected to score somewhere between 18-20 points a night, and at that volume you will appreciated the fact that he will be adding to both points and assists while not hurting your strategy's focus.

3. Rajon Rondo, PG Boston Celtics - Rajon is a favorite PG pick among big-ball drafters because of his 5.2 RPG and 50.5 FG% last season. He adds both to the assists (8.2 APG) AND steals (1.9 SPG) categories which makes him get double the love. He is a considerably low scorer, averaging only 11.9 PPG. So, you don't actually feel a boost per se from his high FG%. Nonetheless, his exciting occasional triple-doubles should be fun to watch as he gets anchor your big ball team's back court.

2. Chris Paul, PG New Orleans Hornets - Just because Chris Paul led the league in assists and steals last season, that doesn't mean you should discriminate against him as being a PG you can build a big-ball team around. Only Jason Kidd rebounded the ball more often per game than CP3 did (5.5 RPG). Lets not forget that he also shot the ball at an impressive 50.3% clip from the field at 16.1 shot attempts. You do not have to draft small-ball just because you picked Chris Paul in the first round. His numbers make the big-ball strategy very doable. Think outside of the box and you might just get to blindside some of your fellow drafters on draft night!

wade-block

1. Dwyane Wade, PG/SG Miami Heat - No one comes close to being the best PG-eligible player who you can happily fit into your big-ball strategy than Dwyane Wade. It's the BLOCKS, baby! Wade blocked the ball 2.7 times more often than his closest competitor, Jason Kidd, among all PGs. 1.3 BPG from your point guard is huge! Yup, Wade even had a higher block average than LeBron James. Add that block average to his 49.1 FG% at 22.0 attempts per night and his 5.0 RPG, then you just found yourself the "perfect" big-ball PG. He contributes to your points category as the league's leader at 30.2 PPG last season. He also adds assists (7.5 APG) and steals (2.2 SPG) to your team's strengths. Wade's flexibility is what keeps me locking him down as my third pick for the first round of this season's draft!

For more in-depth big-ball strategy, research and tips; check out the Four Fingers of Fantasy Draft Guide for 2009.

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Comments (10)Add Comment
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written by Chay, October 12, 2009
Yes.
If you we're as lucky as I am to have gotten Wade/Dwight Howard and Rondo in your team. W's all the way Baby.
Noy
written by Noy, October 18, 2009
Hey sir,

This is Noy from poker last night, mister 9-7 suited...

In this list I do like rondo and andre miller a lot, first, just because all the other guys are premium players (or in rose's case, someone with the hype that gets drafted way too early) that you are sure people would jump on given the chance.

With Rondo, and Miller, in a lot of cases, people would let them slip a little opting for big men in the 3rd -5th rounds, makingthem very interesting to draft just because of the thrill you get when trying to guess if they'll get stolen after your turn and you don't pick them... they are very interesting players to pick...

Another thing is that Rondo, I feel is one of the new rising "game-changers" in the league... something like what Jason Kidd was to his teams in the past, giving them an unfair advantage in the amount of assists and rebounds that they get (and fg%, which kidd didn't have, and that's an incredible and rare plus for a PG)things that you won't get anywhere else... you won't get that from more than a handful of players... and as far as rondo's stat combinations are concerned (8+assists, 5+ rebs 50+fg%), i don't Really think you can get that kind of stuff from any other player period.

Lastly, the important thing to remember is that assists are scarce in the nba, if you don't draft the one of the top 5-8 assist guards in the league,you're probably going to get stuck with the pedestrian 4 apg guards, meaning you have to draft at least one of these guys to be competitive in that stat.

The way i draft is premium player first(whoever is the best left), then two big men in the 2nd and 3rd round, so rondo and andre miller, are usually available on my fourth pick either for my first or second point guard... although I'm not sure that rondo would be this year... it's my draft next week...!! And I've talked too much, thanks Erik...
Re: Noy
written by Points in the Paint, October 19, 2009
Very insightful. Good strategy to follow. I love Rondo, sometimes I think a bit too much. I actually have a tendency to reach for him in the third round because I value his assists and steals combination.

Thanks for visiting the site!
New big ball strategy
written by Aschned, October 23, 2009
I was thinking about this altered big-ball strategy today. Generally, by employing the big-ball strategy, you punt FT% and 3s. But, what if you were to punt PTS also. Let me explain. By punting these three categories, you are only going after players that are inherently undervalued as most fantasy owners seem to have some fixation on PTS as some sort of super-category. In reality, PTS are just as valuable as any other category. If you also punt PTS, you can really load up on FG%, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TOs. That means you should have up to 6 dominant categories. Here's a great projected lineup:

PG: Rondo
SG: R. Brewer
G: J. Kidd
SF: J. Smith
PF: E. Okafor
F: J. Noah
C: D. Howard
Util: L. Scola
BN: T. Chandler
BN: G. Hill
BN: Kenyon Martin
BN: M. Miller

By essentially ignoring traditional SG strengths, you load up on all other categories. This works particularly well since SGs are generally the most overvalued players. If you assemble this lineup, which shouldn't be too difficult to do in a 12-team league, I really think you dominate FG%, REB, STL, and BLK while putting up very competitive numbers in AST and TOs. This allows you to dominate all other big-ball teams in your league, and you should be able to beat a good small-team by taking FG%, REB, STL, BLK, and TOs. What do you guys think?
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